Big Day Tomorrow, If the Youth and Independents Turnout in Iowa, Bernie Wins and So Do We All

Sander's rally in Iowa last night. The youth is our future.

Tomorrow Iowans gather in homes, gymnasiums, libraries, taverns and even grain elevators for caucuses to select their favorite for the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations. Both races are close but the Democratic race which has Hillary and Bernie 3 points apart is within the margin of error, so is being called a toss up. The pundits say that turnout will determine the winner, but in a caucus where the delegates are won in proportion to the support each candidate gets whether Bernie or Hillary wins by a couple of points is meaningless really.

What really matters is the symbolism. Bernie is the outsider, the underdog and Hillary is the Democratic Party's establishment candidate. Hillary, a former first lady and former secretary of state, wins a majority among caucus goers who are 65 and older, Catholics and moderates. Bernie, a U.S. senator representing Vermont, wins a majority of those under 35, first-time caucus goers and political independents. In a New York Times/CBS news national poll this month, the senator from Vermont attracted 60 percent of Democratic voters under 45, while Clinton's support in this more youthful demographic stood at 31 percent. On college campuses across Iowa, and the nation in general, Hillary is a tough sell.

“This race is as tight as can be,” said David Axelrod, a senior political commentator for CNN and an architect of Barack Obama's successful 2008 and 2012 presidential campaigns. “It comes down to who can grind it out on the ground on Monday night,” said Axelrod, "Turnout is everything. If turnout is within a normal range, Hillary likely wins. If it goes higher, approaching 200,000, it will be a good night for Bernie."

This split in supporter's demographics is the biggest issue because whichever one eventually wins the Democratic nomination will need to have very long 'coattails' to accomplish their campaign's promises considering that the House is now dominated by the neanderthal Republicans. Consequently, without a Democratic landslide neither Hillary's modest changes or Bernie's revolutionary ones will go anywhere.

When asked by NBC News' Chuck Todd about his impact on House races Sunday, Bernie said: "I think our campaign is the campaign that is generating excitement and energy that will result in a high voter turnout. Republicans win when voter turnout is low. Democrats win when voter turnout is high." Here then is why Iowa is so important and why the size and composition of the turnout is so important to political junkies stateside and everywhere else.

Nate Silver of Five Thirty Eight.com, America's leading national pollster, asks rhetorically 'What Happens If Bernie Sanders Wins Iowa?' And answers: 'If you’re dreaming of Bernie Sanders beating Hillary Clinton, you know how the movie begins (he wins Iowa on Monday, how it ends (he accepts the nomination to a Simon & Garfunkel tune), and one of the major plot lines (black, Hispanic and moderate Democrats, who for now prefer Clinton to Sanders, begin to #feelthebern. You also know who the hapless villain is: Democratic party elites (aka “the establishment”), who will be fighting Sanders every step of the way.

The divisions between the Democrats and Republicans are as deep as they've ever been in my 68 years. The candidates on both sides prove it, there is no middle ground. If it ends up with a Trump vs. Sanders showdown in November [and i hope it does], because of America's financial and military dominance, the results will effect us all. If Bernie wins and the youth and independent voters also pull in enough progressive Democrats along with him, it could change not only America, but the world.

It's a big dream, but if we don't first dream big how can we fulfill those dreams. Tomorrow is a big day for us all.