Climate Models Unpredictable

The vanishing sea ice, melting glaciers, rising oceans are only a few of the many measurements whose reality has proven the models woefully conservative in their previous predictions. Gwynne Dyer in his recent book 'Climate Wars' writes a fine peice on the timetable involved in producing/publishing the results based on predictions from a climate model and comparing them.

Dyer points out that first field workers collect data over a sufficient peroid of time to be useful, then the data are processed, conclusions are published and the long give and take of the peer review process plays out, next a final report is submitted to an august body like the IPCC of the UN, they use it and other scientific submissions along side the pressure from 'special interests' to produce a conclusion that everyone can swallow.

The process takes years, we're always hearing conclusions drawn from years old data through a web of political interest. Our models are unpredictable because their inputs are old and their outputs gerrymandered. The sea ice is vanishing here and now as the most recent 'vanishing ice' media reports point out. Extinction for polar bears in the wild and unknown others, what a wonderful ethic our generation lives by, the ethic of 'want more now' and let our children pay.

" Politics is how you live your life, not whom you vote for!" -Jerry Rubin

Sea ice in Canada’s fragile Arctic is melting faster than anyone expected, the lead investigator in Canada’s largest climate-change study yet said Friday — raising the possibility that the Arctic could, in a worst-case scenario, be ice-free in about three years.