Groundhog Day, the Perfect Day to Consider Concepts Like Science, Logic and Absolute Certainity.

Science is a relatively modern system that uses a particular type of logic, deductive reasoning, in an attempt to explain reality. Logic says that: IF A+B=C, AND D+E=C, THEN A+B=D+E. Which works perfectly when debating mental constructions in a fixed, non-relativity based, world, to bad that world only exists in classrooms.

For instance, many non-modern cultures based their weather predictions on a worldview that considered the amount of fat stored by seals, or the type and thickness of coat grown by buffalo, or the action taken by groundhogs on a certain day as logical inferences from which to deduce coming weather patterns. We 'modern' folks use computers to analyse historic data sets, ocean temprature fluctuations and other mumbo-jumbo we find convincing in our predictations. Turns out our scientific logic is exactly as accurate as that of past cultures or perhaps a bit worse.

We of a scientific mindset, seeing this equivalence of predictive strength, again turn to logic and argue that fat storage, coat density or groundhog action is scientific because nature's reactions are being driven by an interaction between the jet stream's position, the relative humidity [if it's been rainy- high or snowy-low], etc. in conjunction with natural selection to come to the same conclusions. So by deductive reasoning it doesn't matter whether the weather is being predicted by computers or seal fat the answers should be about the same.

Unfortunately we poor fools who try to use logic to inform our worldview can never be 100% certain of anything. No matter how strong the statistical correlation once in awhile a 'Black Swan' event-something rare, extreme and unpredictable-happens that lies so far beyond our calculations of probability, so far outside science's error bars, that our deep seated need for stability trembles. Fortunately though, we poor logic trusting fools can use this new 'Black Swan' information that refutes those old ideas to form new worldviews. We fools who believe in the deductive process of logic use: thesis + antithesis = synthesis to allow our worldview to change . Those informed only by the 'absolute certainity' of religious prophesy have big trouble with change. Our ideas and ideals resemble Sideshow Bob's hair, the 'absolute certainity' folks sport more of a Pat Boone look.

What a huge advantage then absolute certainity has in the marketplace of minds. It offers easy answers whereas science and logic, with its probabilites and error bars, offers difficult choices. Little wonder that as education standards drop and times get tougher that fundamentist religions-who's god-given absolutely certain worldview is stable-are growing in popularity and influence. A poor fool like me deduces that all this uneditable religious 'absolute certainity' crap is silly horseshit best used to bilk the weak of their meager means not a system to use for my potato planting schedule [which, of course, is the only reason any of this matters at all].