BC's NDP Leader Carole James and The Italian Flag Principle

Headlines across BC picture Carole James as on the horns of a dilemma. Should she stay or should she go? The same 'ol two sided logic that traps us so often. There is another logic that is right now making huge inroads into the fuzzy zone of unknowns. It's called The Italian Flag model, (IF), is a representation of three-valued logic in which evidence for a proposition is represented as green, evidence against is represented as red, and residual uncertainty is represented as white. The white area reflects uncommitted belief, which can be associated with uncertainty in evidence or unknowns, both known and unknown.

The term unknown unknown refers to circumstances or outcomes that were not conceived of by an observer at a given point in time. The meaning of the term becomes more clear when it is contrasted with the known unknown, which refers to circumstances or outcomes that are known to be possible, but it is unknown whether or not they will be realized. The term is used in project planning and decision analysis to explain that any model of the future can only be informed by information that is currently available to the observer and, as such, faces substantial limitations and unknown risk. - Wikipedia

That's where Carole sits, not on the horns of a go-stay dilemma, but in the white zone of uncertainty. Like all difficult choices, there are the arguments for and against each choice and the unknowns floating around in between. When looked at through the IF lens it seems that any conclusion to Carole's situation, like all situations that require a conclusion, can never be 100% certain. Certainty and logic, certainty and science, are strangers. Certainty has no unknown-unknowns, no IF to consider.

Applying the IF model to Carole's situation it appears she has a fairly equal number of supporters and non-supporters among elected NDP incumbents and roughly the same number of uncommitted members of caucus. Neither 'stay' or 'go' can produce the near unanimity Carole, or any party leader, needs. The third choice, open the leadership race tomorrow, offers Carole, or whoever wins, the opportunity, after hearing the uncertain member's admonitions, to include all the known and knowable-unknown voices and thereby minimize the uncertainty, white part of the IF, to only the always present unknown-unknowns. Carole could well be the best choice, let's see.

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