The North Island - Powell River riding where i live is detailed here. Basically Rachel Blaney of the NDP leads by 14 points in North Island-Powell River. But the details are very interesting. The NDP's present 41% hasn't changed much since the writ was dropped. But at that time Harper's Conservatives were very close and both the Liberals and Greens were far behind. In the mast month the NDP has stayed steady but the Conservatives have dropped to 27% while the Liberals are now at 18% with the Greens at 14%. When looking at it graphically it sure looks like the huge drop in the cons numbers since the 2011 election [[from 46% in 2011 to 26% today] mirrors the climb in Lib/Green fortunes not a change in NDP numbers.
This is good news for the Heave Steve Day campaign and for all the strategic voters in Canada whose #1 goal in the Oct 19th election is dumping Harper and his neo-con ilk. It also goes along with a trend towards Trudeau and the Liberals that's being felt on the street across Canada.
The big national polls and pollsters are calling the 3 way race dead even statistically. Every day almost a new poll comes out but each of them is within the margin of error of the polls' methodology. So, as it has been from day 1, it's to close to call by the pollsters but from the feeling in the air and the vectors of change in most graphics the Liberals have the wind in their sails and look ready to peak at the right moment. Consequently, as of now - 26 days from Oct 19th - The Mud Report is predicting a Liberal Minority Government.
Let's all vote together and Heave Steve on October 19th.